The ongoing saga of will Greece default or will they get bailed out continues. (For a summary of how we got to where we are today, see here) News and rumors continue to pour out of Europe and the markets continue to twitch on every morsel of information. Over the weekend (September 24-25), there were rumors of a European style TARP via the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) similar to what we had here in the U.S. in 2008. The new plan would increase the size of the bailout fund that would provide banks additional capital to stay solvent. But the Bank of France head said there is no secret plan to provide capital to the banks.
Lately, it also appears that Germany has been arranging things to prepare for a Greek default. And even though EMU and Greek authorities continue to say that Greece will not default, the markets are saying something different, as the yield on one year Greek government bonds is now over 135%. So, it is increasingly likely that there will be some kind of write down of Greek debt, and bondholders (primarily European banks) will have to take a loss on their Greek debt, but then probably get an injection of capital from the European TARP plan to stay solvent. So, European taxpayers would likely be on the hook for much of the bill. The exact size of any plan is still not known (some rumors put it as high as 1 trillion euros or about $1.37 in US dollars), but it would have to be quite large, as French banks alone have about $57 billion of Greek debt. Again, this would just seem to push the problem off to a later date. While all this continues to go on, the European economy continues to suffer, and it appears the effects may be starting to affect China as well so the prospects of an economic slowdown on a worldwide level begin to increase.
The bottom line, though, is the leaders of the countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU), are having trouble coming to a proposal that everyone can agree on. Although, they have announced a plan is being put together and will be announced in 6 weeks on November 4th, the hopes are that something could be announced sooner than that because the markets are likely to continue to be very volatile until a workable plan is announced. Once it is announced, will it be more “kicking the can” down the road, or will it be something that will be more fundamentally sound and better for the long term? We do not know but a lot of the indications are that it will be closer to the former unfortunately. The worry is that if they do not come up with something soon, the situation could deteriorate further. This has the potential to drive the world markets and economy towards a scenario like 2008 all over again and possibly worse. We are monitoring this situation very carefully, and are making appropriate changes in our strategies as needed for our clients.
UPDATE :
Late Monday information coming out of Europe suggests they will likely be rolling out a European version of the TARP program that was used here in the U.S. in 2008. Keep in mind, though, that as of this writing, we have not heard a definitive plan out of Europe. This may or may not be the plan, and all the participants (17 parliaments from all the countries of the EMU) will need to agree on it. However, the good news is that there is a plan, and that has allowed market participants to, at least for now, take the worst case scenario off the table. The worst case scenario would be a messy default, with many banks failing, bank runs and a possible unraveling of the EMU. Equity markets are responding favorably to the news. However, we have seen this before, and will have to wait and see if the latest news has staying power.
The plan that is being discussed involves leveraging up the EFSF and increasing its influence. This will allow it to provide more funding for the weaker countries (i.e. Greece), and will offer some form of bank recapitalization by allowing banks to sell Greek and other sovereign debt for EFSF debt. Basically swapping toxic debt for AAA debt, just like the U.S. 2008 TARP plan did here in the U.S. It provides some short term help, but it is still kicking a rather large can down the road. They would create a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) which is a separate entity to buy the troubled debt and issue a bond from the EFSF. Remember, SPV’s were one of the things that Enron was famous for, so let’s hope the outcome turns out better for Europe.
Who are the winners and losers? Well the large European banks get bailed out at the expense of European middle class taxpayers. (Haven’t we seen this movie before?) It also forces the weaker nations in Europe (Greece, Portugal, Spain) to endure more austerity and most likely a weak economy for some time to come. It doesn’t fix everything that is broken in the EMU, but it does buy them some time to come up with a permanent fix. This would have to involve more fiscal unity among the members of the EMU. This has been a sticking point for some time, and will likely continue to be.
Other things to consider are, will the people of accept more pain to bail out the banks? There still is no solution for the weak economy in the region, and some of the stronger countries such as Germany and France could see their credit ratings downgraded. Plus, this still does not appear to be a permanent fix and if everyone does not go along with the plan, where do things go? The situation will likely be at the forefront for some time to come.
WHAT IS THE TROIKA?
You may have heard or read about the “troika” in regards to the situation in Greece, and have wondered just what that is. The term “troika” refers to the 3 organizations that will have a large part in determining Greece’s financial future. They are the European Central Bank (ECB), European Commission (EC), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is actually a Russian word and not Greek, and as you can probably tell, it refers to the number “3” or three of a kind. It actually refers to a Russian sleigh pulled by 3 horses. In the summer this would be a carriage with wheels. So the next time you hear the word “troika” used you will know what they are referring to and it is not a Greek mythological figure.
Troika